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Blindspot #030 – Phase 3 of World War III: Cold War 2.0 (or) Hot War Final.0/Zero?
Buiteboer // Dr Petrus de Kock
Blindspot aims to see the world others don’t, or, at least some of the dots others do not happen to connect. In the Blindspot version of relatively recent human history, an ‘event’ often touted as frightening prospect of things to come, is already with us, and has been so for quite some time, namely, World War 3.
In the first instance it is necessary to understand that the global entertainment- and news-industries have weaponised this term, WWIII, over time. Either the trope WWIII is used as anchor for some edge-of-your seat war- or spy-drama, pitting forces against each other that may tip the planet into some biblically inspired form of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD). Or, it is deployed as some Psy-op level collective fear mongering tool by states and leaders to subjugate subjects to the will and whims of elite wars fought with the blood of Joe Bloke and Jane Soap.
At Blindspot we do not take the term WWIII lightly! In fact, we take it so seriously that in the Blindspot universe, we are already in Phase three of said war. In the next few minutes we will share why we propose such a preposterous idea, and also show the critical role Russia had already played in this game of grand masters since it set boots on the ground in Syria, on invitation of the government in Damascus, some years ago.
The day World War III started – 11 September 2001
In the Blindspot eschatology of relatively recent human history, the date 11 September, 2001, is considered as ‘start date’ of WWIII. Like the sinking of the Lusitania, or a Pearl Harbour, it is for lazy historians presented as singular moment that sparked a cacophony of war drums to roll to have national dominos such as Afghanistan, Iraq, and other harborers of friends of the Axis of Evil, fall.
The ‘Axis of Evil’ encompassing Iraq, Syria, Iran, Sudan, North Korea and a few other supposedly unsavoury nations, were then singled out as target practice locations for the first stage of WWIII.
The Second Phase of World War III
The second stage of WWIII can broadly be attached to a pattern of geopolitical events starting with the fall of Libya in 2011 – and the eruption of civil war in Syria, as part of the longer-wave patterns of conflict that spilled across North Africa and the Middle East immediately post South Africa hosting the 2010 Soccer World Cup.
By 2011, all stability bets were off for a revolution-free outlook for Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, and eventually Syria. But, if there is an exact stake one can put in historical time, to mark the initiation of Stage 2 of World War III, the Russian intervention in the Syrian conflict, on invitation of the government, can be framed as such.
The reason being that whether one might like it or not, agree with it or not, but, the Russian involvement in Syria was in direct opposition to yet another ‘western/NATO-led’ regime change operation to be conducted under the guise of popular uprisings against a paternalistic dictator. The consequences of the fall of Muamar Gaddafi can still be felt today, not only in Libya, but in Mali, across the SAHEL, and across the Mediterranean in the form of massive refugee flows overwhelming Club Med.
As we indicated, whether you like it or not, agree with it or not, the Russian intervention in Syria was a game-changer for the balance of power not only inside the Syrian conflict, but, for the region. Through coordination, cooperation, and joint efforts with Syrian, Iraqi, Iranian, and other allied groups in the region, Russia managed to draw a line in the proverbial shifting sands of the Middle East, and illustrated that not only the United States, or NATO, or individual western nations, have the capability to project military force outside of its borders, in pursuit of its own foreign policy objectives, in cooperation with nations considered partners by it.
Phase 3 of World War III
Like the ushering in of the second phase of WWIII, the third stage emerged gradually over time. Yet, a significant crack that opened during 2021, to usher in the appearance of the current, third stage starts with the NATO evacuation, and ceding of Afghanistan, back to Taliban control with a dowry of $80bn worth of weapons.
The third phase of WWIII is unfolding into its second stage, marked by the date 24 February 2022.
This is if one sees the first stage, of phase three of WWIII, unfolding between 2014 and 2022 – with the escalating proxy confrontation between Russia, Ukraine, with the latter backed by NATO, and EU powers. For eight years war has been raging in Ukraine’s east, with 14,000 left dead in the Donbass and Luhansk regions (pre-2022).
As of 24 February 2022, the second stage of phase 3 of WWIII is unfolding as an all-out kinetic war effort by Russia to militarily neutralise Ukraine, and to underline the point that, as per the Budapest Agreement, it would prefer if Ukraine remained a neutral, non-nuclear, non-NATO nation.
Some speak of Cold War 2.0, as has this Blindspot platform. It has gone far beyond that already. Perhaps this morphs into Hot War Final.0?
The table and stage for the final stage of World War III has already been set.
It depends not only on the next moves by China, but, how Eurasia, anchored in a few points by Iran, China, Russia, upend already unsettled balances of forces from here henceforth.