-->>>> It is Frigmentation Everywhere <<<<--
Blindspot #009 – 15.9.21 ->> Turkey’s Africa Policy Gambits and the next US Civil War looming?
Blindspot wants you to see the world others don’t.
While the 24/7 ‘news’ snoozecast channels have been parading the memory of 9/11, it is most definitely for that reason unnecessary to waste valuable blindspot time on blindsided buildings. This week Blindspots abound on very many unseen 4D frontlines.
First off Blindspot picks up a thread from Armstrong Economics reflecting on simmering political tensions in the USA fuelled by the ongoing allegations that Donald Trump may indeed have been cheated out of the White House by the woke Biden camp. Martin Armstrong argues that,
“We are facing a GLOBAL separatist movement that is not confined to just the United States. Everywhere from North America to Europe and Asia there are signs of tremendous stress that is unfolding along historic lines of separation.”
In Blindspot #008 we covered ‘Frigmentation’ – a convergence of friction and fragmentation. Seems like Armstrong Economics is also identifying forces of fragmentation and separatist forces at work the world over. It is argued that the disputed 2020 election in the USA is fuelling political uncertainty and perhaps instability as angry MAGA-ists are still out in the political wilderness aiming to drain the Washington political swamp of the Biden-Clinton-Obama Antifa cancel culture policy mongers.
Africa remains a major stomping ground for global powers with vested geopolitical- and economic interests to safeguard, or expand. Usually such analyses would look into the ‘usual suspects’ with boots and guns on the ground to project influence, counter other geopolitical powers- and in the meantime rake in mega-profits through above- and below- board wheelings and corporate investment dealings.
France, the USA, the UK, and China would usually come to mind when raising the topic of external economic, political, military- and socio-cultural influence to maintain, protect, and expand on the geopolitical chess board of Africa.
But, this week we do not focus on the usual suspects, and choose to blindspot the very interesting case of Turkey, that has quietly, since hosting its first Turkey-Africa Summit in 2008, expanded its reach, influence, and geopolitical strategy into Africa in an impactful way.
For example, Turkey, a NATO member, was vehemently opposed to the NATO regime change operation that led to the fall of Muammar Gaddafi. Turkey and Libya had a very significant relationship- which was of course part of its Mediterranean strategic positioning.
Jalel Harchaoui argues, “Turkey’s closeness to Gaddafi had first burgeoned when he backed Turkey’s 1974 invasion of northern Cyprus, and economic activity between Libya and Turkey grew over the subsequent years. That growth accelerated after a diplomatic deal with the United States in 2003 helped lift international sanctions on Libya amid an era of high oil prices. Also, when Libya declared an EEZ in May 2009, and signaled that it was open to international agreements, Turkey’s interest was piqued.7 By early 2011, Turkish companies had over $20 billion of outstanding projects there, mostly in construction, engineering, and energy. These enormous economic interests suffice to explain why Turkey first tried to oppose the intervention.”
Turkey’s entry into Libya in 2020, to support the UN recognised government in Tripoli, had a significant impact, and some commentators indicate the deployment of Turkish drone- and air defence systems, as well as Turkish troops, military advisors, as well as fighters from Syria (to bolster government forces) had a decided impact on ‘saving’ the government form imminent collapse as forces led by General Haftar approached Tripoli – before Ankara’s ‘timely’ entry to the fray. Turkey is has therefore been actively utilising military force as diplomatic tool to expand its footprint in the Mediterranean basin, as well as within countries immediately bordering it- including of course the Black Sea with the hotly contested territories of Crimea, and Ukraine across the waters to Turkey’s north.
The story of a resurgent Turkey, in a region where the geopolitical balance of power has shifted significantly following on the graceless US Saigon-style evacuation of Kabul, is an intriguing blindspot to interrogate.
Next month, October, 2021, Turkey will host another round of the strategic Turkey-Africa summit. Turkey’s geopolitical shadow looms large. In the week of 8 September, President Tshesekedi paid an official state visit from Kinshasa – to Ankara, in preparation for the forthcoming third Turkey-Africa Summit. From its involvement in the Syrian conflict, to tensions with Greece, the EU, and France regarding territorial waters in the Mediterranean – combined with the ongoing gas exploration activities it engages in, Turkey’s rise as regional power might be a geopolitical Blindspot Africa analysts and students of contemporary world politics want to look into more.
And much more…
->> Jalel Harchaoui. 2020. Why Turkey intervened in Libya.
->> Martin Armstrong. 2021. The Next US & World Civil War. https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/civil-unrest/the-next-us-civil-war/?__cf_chl_jschl_tk__=pmd_W2LRWIirl51hei9pzBAsMPwTjwvrdIrKAqkobTmyJuo-1631632778-0-gqNtZGzNAlCjcnBszQml
->> Fehim Tastekin, Al-Monitor, August 18, 2021. Turkey views ties with Ethiopia as key to influence in Africa. https://ayyaantuu.org/turkey-views-ties-with-ethiopia-as-key-to-influence-in-africa/
->> Africanews. 2021. September 8. Erdogan Tshesekedi discuss Turkey-Africa relations. https://www.africanews.com/2021/09/08/erdogan-tshisekedi-discuss-turkey-africa-relations/