BLINDSPOT #003 - Testing Southern African Risk Waters
What are we Blindspotting?
The theme of Blindspot Underground Delivery #003 is:
Testing Southern African Risk Waters.
This edition of Blindspot takes a look at regional political and security dynamics as well as the ongoing mysterious case of an alleged insurrectionist plot conceived, ostensibly, by political actors from inside the South African ruling party.
This edition of Blindspot highlights emerging political- and conflict dynamics on Southern Africa’s eastern seaboard that are creeping up on the region. That is why Blindspot wants you to see the world others don’t – seeing that at least two of the cases covered, share asymmetric risks that challenge the systemic status quo, each in their own significant ways.
In South Africa’s case, the proverbial epicentre of an asymmetric challenge to the State and constitutional order can be found in KZN. This edition of Blindspot suggests that three somewhat dynamic conflict situations on the eastern seaboard of Southern Africa (Kwazulu-Natal Province, eSwatini/Swaziland, and Mozambique – particularly Cabo del Gado Province) are challenging stability in the region.
A region that has already been economically rocked by the socio-economic (human/policy & pandemic/health crisis induced) fall-out of the COVID-19 pandemic. In a region where human security, and development prospects were fragile at the best of the commodity boom-times (early 2000s), it is increasingly evident that social, political, and economic prospects are increasingly beset by new asymmetric risks. The regional and global response to the Islamist insurgency in the country’s north, is drawing attention to a major risk to regional stability.
This week we also release Part 2 of the interview with Dr Kingsley Makhubela. In this part we delve deep into his experience in Somalia, while being South Africa’s ambassador to Kenya. We also discuss the concept of Third Generation Militias he developed to analyse and better interpret Somalia’s civil conflict dynamics that have been raging since 1990/91 when the state collapsed. We also apply lessons from cases of state failure, and state collapse to environments such as Libya, Syria, Yemen, and Iraq, while also asking questions regarding the stability, and strength of the South African state.